A new survey from the Business Roundtable shows CEOs nationwide are feeling modestly more confident about the near-term economic outlook, in one of the first signs of optimism after months of caution driven by inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and shifting consumer behavior. While the improvement is slight, it is significant nonetheless: CEOs are beginning to see stabilization in areas such as supply chains, input costs, and revenue expectations. Still, the survey downplayed expectations that increased confidence will translate into stronger hiring plans—highlighting a growing divide between corporate optimism and labor-market hesitancy.
The quarterly CEO Economic Outlook Index-which assesses expectations for sales, capital spending, and hiring over the next six months-inched higher for a second consecutive period. The upward shift indicates that executives think the U.S. economy has settled into a more stable period with fewer shocks and a more defined policy path. CEOs cited better consumer sentiment and easing inflation as the top drivers of their cautious optimism. Many said that while consumer spending has stabilized from its pandemic-era spikes, it is still strong enough to underpin growth across industries from retail to manufacturing.
But CEOs are still cautious about unresolved headwinds. High interest rates, though now stabilizing, continue to restrict borrowing and investment, particularly for small and medium-sized businesses that rely more heavily on credit. Several executives made a point of saying that the future path of rates would keep determining their decisions in the months to come. Many are preparing for a scenario in which rates stay higher more than initially expected, which would force companies to focus on efficiency and long-term planning rather than aggressive expansion.
The reliability of supply chains has improved dramatically from the disruptions that prevailed during 2021–2023 and has given CEOs extra confidence. Companies report shorter lead times, better inventories flowing, and greater flexibility in choosing suppliers. The push to diversify supply chains-whether by near-shoring or friend-shoring-has helped reduce exposure to geopolitical risks. Executives say these moves will strengthen the U.S. industrial base and better help businesses respond quickly to consumer demand.
Still, it is not all good news: hiring intentions remain muted, with a majority of CEOs saying they are not planning to hire many employees over the next several months. Certain sectors—technology, finance, and logistics among them—have already had rounds of restructuring and automation, making headcount strategies more cautious. Labor costs remain high, and CEOs are investing increasingly in productivity-enhancing technologies that do not increase labor demand.
This cautious approach to hiring underscores a broader strategic shift: companies are prioritizing productivity and efficiency over scale. Many CEOs believe they can achieve growth through operational improvements, AI adoption, and supply-chain modernization rather than rapid workforce expansion. Automation and enterprise AI solutions are being deployed across industries to streamline repetitive tasks, improve forecasting, and reduce operational errors. Such tools are becoming integral to how CEOs frame investment decisions.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions linger in the minds of executives. Uncertainty about U.S.–China trade relations, global flash points, and election-year policy changes continues to dampen longer-term prospects. CEOs show confidence in the durability of the U.S. economy but say external shocks could rapidly change matters. Some executives worry that new tariffs or regulatory changes might again force them to rethink supply-chain strategies, especially for those companies heavily integrated with global markets.
Against this background, the modest increase in CEOs’ confidence seems to reflect a growing belief that the worst turbulence might already be in the rearview mirror. Many executives report that their companies are more ready to handle the volatility than they were before the pandemic. They identify solid cash positions, diversified revenue streams, and an improved digital infrastructure as key strengths going into 2026. The overarching message from CEOs is one of cautious optimism. The economy seems to be stabilizing, and inflation is easing.
Yet consumer spending remains steady. Companies, though, are not ready to accelerate hiring or make large, risk-heavy investments. Instead, they’re preparing for a steady, controlled expansion-one that prioritizes long-term resilience over short-term growth. While confidence levels are below their historical highs, the latest survey shows some slow, albeit meaningful, shifting. If trends continue-particularly with further inflation moderation and clearer monetary policy-CEO sentiment could strengthen further and lay the foundation for broader economic momentum.
